Almost 42,000 new homes needed in Brighton and Hove by 2040

With 267,092 more adults expected to be living in Brighton and Hove by 2040 – including 54,343 people aged 66 and over, 93,803 first-time buyers (25-44-year-olds), and 34,496 of student age (18-22) – the analysis highlights the pressing need to accommodate the city’s demographic growth.

The research also identifies high levels of under-occupancy, with more than 9,984 people aged 66 and over residing in homes larger than necessary (two or more bedrooms unoccupied). If this trend continues, more than 14,994 65+ households are expected to be under-occupied by 2040.

Home to four universities, Brighton and Hove’s student-age population is projected to grow by 21% to nearly 34,496 people in 2040. Furthermore, its social housing stock is estimated to have plummeted by 1,836 despite 4,746 people being listed on their local authority’s housing register in 2023.

Dan Usher, economics director at Marrons, who specialises in housing need evidence, said: “Brighton and Hove has a significant number of homes to deliver by 2040 for a variety of demographics.

“The overall adult population is expected to increase, particularly in terms of people ages 66 and older, first-time buyers and students. Brighton and Hove is a popular place to live now and that isn’t set to change any time soon. The local housing market must be moulded to meet this demographic mix too. The constraints posed by the city’s geography also necessitate cooperation with neighbouring authorities to address the growing unmet housing need.

“Building a range of homes to suit many different needs is not only a priority but a necessity. It creates more choice, aids first-time buyers onto the property ladder, gives expanding families additional space; helps the ageing population downsize and live in homes more suitable for their needs, and adds to the supply of affordable housing.”

In contrast to the remaining 19 local authorities within the South East, Brighton and Hove will need to deliver housing to meet the needs of the largest increase in first-time buyers. Out of all English local authorities, Brighton and Hove is set to see the second largest increase (17%) in 25-44-year-olds, behind Coventry (39%).

Southampton is forecast to see the greatest surge in its student-age population, while Slough is anticipated to witness the most substantial increase in those aged 66 and over, with a projected rise of 49% by 2040.

Utilising the latest Office for National Statistics Census data (2021) and 2018-based population projections, Marrons has painted a clear picture of England’s housing needs in 2040. Supplementing this is data from local authority housing registers, affordable housing stock records and extrapolated housing requirement figures using the government’s standard method.

Simon Macklen, partner and head of economics at Marrons, said: “England is poised for significant demographic change over the next two decades, bringing forth new challenges and opportunities in the housing sector.

“In examining the data, it becomes evident there is a significant need for general market homes to accommodate the growing population. As well as meeting this basic need, more could be done to provide greater choice and acknowledge the positive impact of specialist and affordable homes as part of a functioning housing market, much of which can be facilitated through market-led development at scale.

“Already, England has been named as the most difficult place to find a home in the developed world, and our ageing population and rising property prices will only exacerbate the problem. If we are going to meet the requirements of the population in 2040, we need to prioritise future residents and start building the right homes today.”